Sen. Debbie Stabenow is widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the 2012 elections, but the Public Policy Polling firm reports that her numbers are improving.
Here’s how they lay the groundwork: “The biggest beneficiaries of the Midwestern backlash toward newly elected Republican governors might be the Democratic senators up for re-election in those states next year. Earlier this month we found Herb Kohl and Sherrod Brown in pretty solid shape for re-election in Wisconsin and Ohio respectively, and now Debbie Stabenow’s standing is looking much improved from when PPP last polled Michigan in early December.”
Stabenow’s net approval rating has improved six points to plus-seven (46/39) from its plus-one standing (41/40) in early December. More importantly, she now leads all of the Republicans PPP tested against her by double digits. She’s up 10 on former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land at 48-38, 12 on former Congressman Pete Hoekstra at 50-38, 17 on former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis at 52-35, and 19 on announced candidate Randy Hekman at 52-33.
Stabenow’s net approval rating has improved six points to plus-seven (46/39) from its plus-one standing (41/40) in early December. More importantly, she now leads all of the Republicans PPP tested against her by double digits. She’s up 10 on former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land at 48-38, 12 on former Congressman Pete Hoekstra at 50-38, 17 on former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis at 52-35, and 19 on announced candidate Randy Hekman at 52-33.
The numbers against Land and Hoekstra are most telling, according to PPP, because they also tested them against Stabenow in December. Stabenow is now doing six points better against Land, having led by only four at 45-41 on the previous poll. And she’s doing 11 points better against Hoekstra, having led by just a single point at 45-44 on the original survey.
PPP adds this: “Land is the most compelling of the candidates on the Republican side. She has a 37/19 favorability rating. In addition to being pretty universally well liked within her own party (55/7), she also has very strong numbers with independents (36/19), and comes pretty close to breaking even with Democrats (25/27). With Barack Obama back on the top of the ballot next year, Democratic turnout is likely to return to its record levels of 2008 and that means the GOP needs a candidate who can get some crossover votes. Land’s chances of doing that appear better than for other Republicans.”
PPP adds this: “Land is the most compelling of the candidates on the Republican side. She has a 37/19 favorability rating. In addition to being pretty universally well liked within her own party (55/7), she also has very strong numbers with independents (36/19), and comes pretty close to breaking even with Democrats (25/27). With Barack Obama back on the top of the ballot next year, Democratic turnout is likely to return to its record levels of 2008 and that means the GOP needs a candidate who can get some crossover votes. Land’s chances of doing that appear better than for other Republicans.”
I don’t know that I would expect a huge turnout next year, given the many times that Obama has angered or disappointed his liberal base. In addition, Republican internal polls contradict the PPP results.
As for Hoekstra, he enjoys similar numbers to Land with Republicans, as 52 percent of them rate him favorably to 9 percent with a negative opinion. But his overall favorability scores are not nearly as strong as hers, the polling shows, with voters nearly evenly divided on him at 30 percent positive and 28 percent negative. The unsuccessful 2010 gubernatorial candidate doesn’t have her appeal across party lines. Only 13 percent of Democrats give him good marks, compared to 40 percent who see him unfavorably, and independents are ambivalent toward him, splitting 31/30, PPP found.
Former GOP chair Saul Anuzis is probably a lot better known to Washington journalists than he is to Michigan voters at this point. Only 20 percent of voters know enough about him to have an opinion, and despite his past service in the GOP, including a run in January for national party chairman, just 6 percent of Republicans in the state rate him positively.
“He conceivably could prove to be a good candidate if he ran, but at this point he’s a blank slate,” PPP concluded. “And the same is true with Randy Hekman, whom only 17 percent of voters claim an opinion about.
“Stabenow’s approval numbers still aren’t stellar, and it would be a surprise if her 2012 reelection proves to be as easy as her 2006 one was. But she’s definitely in better shape than at the end of last year.”
(See my next post for the other side of the story.)
