Macomb County could play a key role in the Michigan
elections of 2016 for president and 2018 for governor, according to a statewide poll.
If Macomb still serves as the state’s bellwether county,
early indications point to an interesting presidential race as Hillary Clinton
and Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in that suburban Detroit community. A poll by Vanguard Public
Affairs and Denno Research found Clinton securing 38 percent of the Macomb
County vote in a potential general election matchup with Trump, who got 36
percent support.
County executive Mark Hackel is clearly the Democrats’ strongest candidate at
this early stage if the 2018 contest features Attorney General Bill Schuette as
the Republican nominee.
Congressman Dan Kildee of Flint and former state Senate
Democratic Leader Gretchen Whitmer of East Lansing trailed Schuette while Hackel
vs. the AG was a dead heat.
between now and then, but I think if you’re Bill Schuette and you’d like to be
the state’s next governor, you view Mark Hackel and his career successes as a
significant obstacle,” said T.J. Bucholz, CEO of Lansing-based Vanguard.
“Hackel certainly appeals to the business community statewide, but in order for
him to get the nomination in 2018, he needs to assure the Democratic base in
this state that he’s in tune with them on social issues.”
often mentioned as possible 2018 contenders while Hackel is a moderate Democrat
who frequently pursues bipartisanship on an array of issues.
In the Vanguard/Denno poll, Schuette topped Kildee and
Whitmer by identical 38-30 percent margins. The two Democrats’ support came up
short of the 32 percent of respondents who were undecided.
But Hackel and Schuette came in at 35 percent each in the
survey, with 30 percent undecided.
candidate who does better than Schuette with female voters, by five
points. In addition, while the county executive and former Macomb sheriff is
six points down to Schuette with male voters, that is significantly better than
Kildee’s 11-point gap and
Some Republican operatives believe that Lt. Gov. Brian
Calley would be a stronger GOP nominee than Schuette among independent voters.
The Aug. 4-8 Vanguard/Denno survey found Hackel and Schuette in a statistical
tie among independents, with the AG up by 1 point.
Kildee and Whitmer are significantly less popular with
independents and Republicans compared to Hackel. And Macomb’s first elected
executive, while demonstrating considerable strength on his home turf, also
attracts support across the voter-rich tri-county area of southeast Michigan.
a narrative of growth and expansion” in Macomb has gained traction throughout southeast
Michigan. But Hackel’s three decades at the Macomb County Sheriff’s Department could
become a significant factor.
“He also has an extensive law enforcement background —
richer than Bill Schuette’s — which might explain a gender gap we see in this
poll,” Bucholz said. “To be successful, Mark Hackel will need to educate voters
— especially men — of that background. If he does, he could extend a lead
over Schuette in the near term.”
