Inside Michigan Politics took a detailed look at Michigan’s
congressional map, gerrymandered by the Republicans in 2011, and finds that everything
is going according to the GOP plan.

The 14-district map was drawn to create nine safely
Republican seats and it has done just that, according to election results and
an IMP precinct-by-precinct study of the Democratic/Republican base.

Both parties engage in the scurrilous practice of
gerrymandering, of course. But it’s been a long time since the Michigan
Democrats controlled the redistricting process. As a result, the typical majority of
Michiganders who vote for Democrats in U.S. House races have largely been
thwarted over the past 20-plus years.

Here’s how IMP editor and publisher Susan Demas assesses
the situation:

“The latest evidence of just how good the 2011 map has
been for the Republicans can be found in precinct-by-precinct returns in the
2014 election from the Secretary of State’s Elections Division that reveals
“base party strength” in all 14 of Michigan’s U.S. House districts.
Here’s the picture that emerges:

“Democrats received an aggregate majority in voting for
Congress statewide in each of the past two elections, yet the new statistics
show that Democrats only have a ‘base party strength’ greater than the GOP’s in
only five of the state’s 14 districts (the ones the Dems currently hold).

“That continues an amazing history during which there
have been only three elections in nearly four decades — in 1994, 2004 and 2010
— where the GOP has managed to win an aggregate majority of the popular vote
for the U.S. House in Michigan when both parties fielded candidates in every
district.”

What that means is that in fie of the last seven House elections the Democrats win a majority of the combined statewide vote but the GOP won a majority of the congressional seats.
The IMP calculations of the two parties’ base in each
district (based on voting for the three university boards and the State Board
of Education) show that the closest the state comes to a competitive territory
is Western Michigan’s District 7, where GOP Congressman Tim Walberg enjoys a
53.6 percent edge in the all-important base voting.

In the upcoming open seat being vacated by Congresswoman
Candice Miller, the base of loyal Republican voters is 56.9 percent. Typically,
a seat with a 55-45 base – or a wider gap – is considered safe.

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