Does Mackinac – and Michigan – not matter much for 2016?

Monroe News photo

With six presidential candidates scheduled and five who
showed up, this year’s biennial Michigan Republican conference on Mackinac
Island drew a record 2,200 attendees.

But the vibe coming out of the weekend on the island may
be that Mackinac had no impact on the GOP presidential race – and it appears
Michigan will suffer the same fate in 2016.

The winner of the Mackinac straw poll was Rand Paul, a
candidate whose fortune has faded and is now considered a longshot for the
White House.

The Kentucky senator received 22 percent support in the
poll and the surging Carly Fiorina was second. But GOP darling Donald Trump
finished seventh – a sure indication that the Mackinac crowd is not a reflection
of the party base.

The poll was conducted by The Detroit News and the MIRS
news service. In an editorial published on Friday, prior to the poll results,
MIRS (subscription only) made the case that Michigan doesn’t matter much in the
battle for the GOP nomination:

“… Many of the party’s elected leaders – (from) Gov. Rick
Snyder on down — are
stridently undecided, liking parts of one candidate and parts of
others.

“They’re watching candidates like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (the one no-show
on Mackinac), who
topped Michigan polls many months ago, flame out into a bulging pool
of candidates swimming in the single digits in polls.

“The 2016 presidential contest is like nothing these attendees are used
to. Instead of a handful of strong candidates being bolstered by
in-state paid consultants and built-in grassroots teams featuring
T-shirt-wearing youths, the two GOP primary front runners in Michigan
aren’t showing up this weekend.

“Instead of a rebellious Michigan saying ‘delegates be damned’ and
holding its presidential primary earlier than national rules allow, Michigan’s primary will be March 8, after 21 other states have held
their selection contests.

“The dynamic presents a problem for political types who don’t want to
invest their political stock in a candidate who is one awful debate
performance away from dropping out.”