As Ted Cruz and John Kasich edge closer to withdrawing their pledge to support the Republican presidential nominee, how long will it take before the Trump factor becomes key in GOP congressional races?

Cruz and Kasich seem ready to disavow Donald Trump if he emerges as the nominee but those seeking House seats have largely been given a pass on this question.

In Michigan, gerrymandering has nearly eliminated competition in congressional contests but two open House seats should be highly competitive – the 1st District in northern Michigan, including all of the U.P.,  and the 10th District in southeast Michigan, centered in Macomb County.

Are the Republican contenders in those races ready to publicly pledge loyalty to the party nominee (normally a routine matter) and then potentially align themselves with the increasingly toxic Trump?

So far, the answer is: We don’t know.

On a national scale, The Hill is reporting that Democrats have already established a list of 10 seats, stretching from New York to California, that will be in play in November if Trump is at the top of the GOP ticket. On the Senate side, the near-panic in Republican circles has been widely reported as strategists fear the erratic, unpopular Trump will hand over control of the Senate to the Democrats.

In Michigan’s 10th District, the Republicans have a decided advantage in the fall. But a hotly contested GOP primary is shaping up for the seat being vacated by Rep. Candice Miller and the four-man field remains silent about Trump.  Here’s the lineup in the 10th, which includes the Thumb Area: retired businessman Paul Mitchell, state Rep. Tony Forlini of Harrison Township, state Sen. Phil Pavlov of St. Clair, and former state senator Alan Sanborn of Richmond Township.

State Sen. Jack Brandenburg of Harrison Township was considered the likely frontrunner until he chose not to run. When Brandenburg proudly endorsed Trump last month, becoming the highest-ranking Michigan official to do so, the 10th District candidates remained mum.

In the 1st District, which will also be competitive in November, a three-way GOP primary has taken shape. According to Inside Michigan Politics, most attention is focused on state Sen. Tom Casperson of Escanaba and former state Sen. Jason Allen of Traverse City. Retired U.S. Marine Corp. General Jack Bergman is trying to appeal to Tea Partiers, a group that seems to be split between the staunchly pro-Trump and those who don’t view the billionaire businessman as a true Republican.

After a week of campaigning in which Trump made several highly controversial statements (and clumsy attempts at clarifying previous statements), all seven of these candidates should be getting nervous. Among the overall electorate, the GOP frontrunner is highly unpopular in the polls among women, blacks, Hispanics and white-collar voters.

If Trump is the nominee and carries on in his usual bombastic way, these congressional candidates will soon be questioned nearly on a daily basis along these lines: “Donald Trump just said … do you agree with him? Are you disavowing what he said?”

The voters will want answers.

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