 |
| Kasich |
Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” newsletter has updated its rankings of the potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates and Sen. Rand Paul and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are the only contenders whose stock is rising.
But Sabato, a longtime political analyst from the University of Virginia, and his team remain surprisingly strong in their assessment of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.
 |
| Walker |
“We continue to like
Walker’s combination of Blue State electoral success and conservative bona
fides, but let’s face it: We have little idea how he would handle the crucible
of a national campaign. That is just unknowable at this point.
Walker’s combination of Blue State electoral success and conservative bona
fides, but let’s face it: We have little idea how he would handle the crucible
of a national campaign. That is just unknowable at this point.
“Walker’s potential
as a candidate comes in part because, as a governor, he doesn’t have to weigh
in all the time on divisive national issues — something he won’t necessarily
be able to get away with in 2015 if he becomes a candidate. It seems like an
odd comparison, but Walker might end up being like Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), who
had all the makings of being a great candidate (in 2012) until he actually became one.
as a candidate comes in part because, as a governor, he doesn’t have to weigh
in all the time on divisive national issues — something he won’t necessarily
be able to get away with in 2015 if he becomes a candidate. It seems like an
odd comparison, but Walker might end up being like Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), who
had all the makings of being a great candidate (in 2012) until he actually became one.
“Tim Pawlenty (R), the former Minnesota governor whose shiny candidacy went up
in smoke quickly, is another comparison that Walker and his allies surely
wouldn’t welcome. And of course Walker needs to win reelection — we rate him a
solid favorite but he’s not likely to win by a big, Christie-esque number — or
all this talk is moot. We like Walker’s potential as a candidate, but just
because he tops our list doesn’t make him the frontrunner: This is a very big
and fluid field.
in smoke quickly, is another comparison that Walker and his allies surely
wouldn’t welcome. And of course Walker needs to win reelection — we rate him a
solid favorite but he’s not likely to win by a big, Christie-esque number — or
all this talk is moot. We like Walker’s potential as a candidate, but just
because he tops our list doesn’t make him the frontrunner: This is a very big
and fluid field.
Here is a portion of the Crystal Ball chart:
| First Tier | ||||
| Candidate | Key Advantages | Key Disadvantages | Since Last Update | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Scott Walker Governor, WI | •Midwest GOP governor in Obama state •Heroic conservative credentials •Shown political durability | •Too bland? Next Pawlenty? •Might not deliver home state •Would highly motivate left/labor | – |
 | Rand Paul Senator, KY | •Tea Party favorite •Strong support from libertarian GOP wing •National ID and fundraising network | •Too libertarian? •Association with out-of-mainstream father •Too dovish/eclectic for GOP tastes? | ↑ |
 | Chris ChristieGovernor, NJ | •Dynamic speaker •Shown ability to pursue mainly conservative agenda in Blue state •Could bridge criticism by media rally right to his aid? | •Bridge scandal still playing out •Bullying and staff questions •Not conservative enough for base? | ↓ |
| Second Tier | ||||
 | Marco Rubio Senator, FL | •Dynamic speaker and politician •From most electorally valuable swing state | •Future tough votes in Senate; has and will have federal record •Vetting issues regarding family •Could he really deliver more Hispanic votes? | – |
 | Ted Cruz Senator, TX | •Tea Party favorite •Texas and small-dollar fundraising •Conservative voting record | •Too extreme? One word: Shutdown. •Disliked on both sides of the Senate aisle | – |
