Ted Koppel: America loses trust, fear among Arab nations

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, here is Koppel’s opening: “It is provocative, but not entirely inaccurate, to suggest that U.S. foreign policy these past few months has been sufficiently erratic to make America’s allies reconsider the degree to which we can be trusted — and our adversaries re-evaluate the degree to which we must be feared.”

“Overshadowing all other concerns,” Koppel said, “is the fear that Iran is poised to reap enormous benefits from the so-called Arab Spring. ‘Even without nukes,’ one top official told me, ‘Iran picks up the pieces. With nukes, it takes the house.’

“… Each week that passes without the overthrow or elimination of Moammar Gadhafi is perceived in Jerusalem as emboldening the leadership of Iran and North Korea. ‘Imagine,’ one source told me, ‘how Gadhafi must be kicking himself for giving up the development of Libya’s nuclear program.’

As for Egypt, which seemed to be a point of global pride as the country moved toward democracy, the Israelis see the departure of Hosni Mubarak as a potential flash point. They recommend that the United States pour aid into the Arab world’s largest nation in order to keep its economy stable.

But Koppel reports that potential trouble spots for the Obama administration are spread all across the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf  horizon.

“With almost no margin for error, the Israelis have long been among the world’s foremost pragmatists. While I was in Jerusalem, events in Syria were coming to a boil. Since the Syrians are closely allied with Israel’s bitterest enemies — Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s main sponsor, Iran — one might expect Israeli leaders to take some comfort in seeing the (Syrian) regime of Bashar Assad in trouble.

“But here, too, the Israelis are far more comfortable with stability on their borders. Assad, like his father before him, has maintained an uneasy truce along Syria’s border with Israel, despite Israel’s continued occupation of the Golan Heights.

“Little, if anything, that has happened during the past few months has improved Israel’s standing in the region. One of the most telling blows to Israel’s security has gone all but unnoticed in the swirl of uprisings. For years, the most stable relationship that Israel enjoyed with any Muslim nation was with Turkey.

“Even under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has specialized in publicly baiting the Israelis, the relationship between the two countries’ intelligence agencies remained strictly professional. ‘That,’ a high-ranking Israeli official told me, ‘is no longer the case.’

“The outlook from Jerusalem these days is not encouraging. Iranian influence is growing throughout the Persian Gulf and beyond. Egypt’s commitment to its peace treaty with Israel is uncertain. Syria could explode into total chaos at any moment. Jordan’s stability is in question. Pakistan, a Muslim country with more than a 100 nuclear warheads, is confronting an uncertain future — made all the more unpredictable by the commencement of a U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan this summer. Whether any U.S. troops will remain in Iraq after the end of this year remains an open question. America is war-weary and facing a crushing deficit.”