Stats guru Nate Silver has weighed in regarding the
upcoming Senate races and he sees the Republicans taking control of the upper
chamber, with a few caveats.
his calculations show a 60 percent chance of a GOP takeover in the November
elections. However, at this early stage in the campaign the Electoral College
Wizard warns that his projections are still fluid: the GOP will most likely
gain six seats, plus or minus five. That means the GOP picks up anywhere from
one to 11 seats.
With 36 Senate seats up for grabs, the Republicans’ magic
number is six in order to make Mitch McConnell the Majority Leader. Of course
Silver is someone to be reckoned with. In 2012 he correctly predicted the
presidential election winner in all 50 states and he went 31 for 33 in Senate
races.
In Michigan, Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com, forecasts a
45 percent chance that Republican Terri Lynn Land will succeed retiring
Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, beating Democratic Congressman Gary Peters. That
compares to a 70 percent chance for a GOP gain in Arkansas, 55 percent in
Louisiana and a 50-50 situation in North Carolina.
Democrats, who have a number of Senate members facing re-election in Red States
where President Obama is particularly unpopular.
In the newest ABC poll, the incumbent or likely GOP
candidate is leading by an average of 12 points in 34 of the 36 states where
contests are underway.
