State House races ‘up for grabs’ in 2012, poll shows

While those in political circles focus all their attention on the presidential race and partisan divides in Congress, a new Michigan poll finds that the 110 state House seats are “up for grabs” in the November elections.

In the poll, 600 likely Michigan voters were asked if they would be voting for the Democratic or Republican candidate for Michigan state representative; 31 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 29 percent would be voting for the Republican candidate.

That 2-point gap is insignificant because it’s within the poll’s margin of error. Essentially, it’s a toss-up.

More importantly, 40 percent of those in the survey indicated they were unsure who they would vote for in November.

“Generally, this poll shows that races for the Michigan state House, especially in marginal districts, are very much up for grabs,” said Jeff Lambert, president of Lambert, Edwards & Associates, which conducted the poll in conjunction with Denno Research.

“We strongly believe that candidates who are able to resonate messages with undecided voters will win the day in November.”

In addition, independent voters are still very much on the fence, with 64 percent undecided in the race for state House. Republicans and Democrats each nabbed 15 percent of the independent voters, said Dennis Denno, CEO of Denno Research.

 “We’re also seeing slight edges among white voters – 32 percent are voting Republican, while 26 percent prefer the Democrats,” Denno said. “We also know – at the moment – that approximately 30 percent of women are voting for Democrats, while 25 percent of women are voting for Republican candidates.”

Because the poll was taken well in advance of the May filing deadline, with few candidates officially declared, it essentially serves a generic survey that gauges voters’ preferences for one of the two political parties. There are no races for state Senate or governor on the 2012 ballot.

Lambert noted that the tumultuous 2011 legislative session in the state Capitol has had little impact so far on how people will vote in 2012.