So, at some point this morning you heard excited media
types reporting that Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia lost his Republican primary
last night, and you’re wondering why this is such a huge story and what it all
means. (A New Yorker blog carried this headline: “Cantor Loses, and Washington Goes Ape.”)
types reporting that Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia lost his Republican primary
last night, and you’re wondering why this is such a huge story and what it all
means. (A New Yorker blog carried this headline: “Cantor Loses, and Washington Goes Ape.”)
Well, first, consider this:
* Cantor, a possible successor to House Speaker
John Boehner, is the first House Majority Leader in U.S. history to lose his
seat in a primary.
John Boehner, is the first House Majority Leader in U.S. history to lose his
seat in a primary.
* An internal poll taken by the Cantor camp about six weeks
ago indicated that the incumbent was up by 34 points over his obscure tea party
challenger, Dave Brat, a native of Alma, Mich.
ago indicated that the incumbent was up by 34 points over his obscure tea party
challenger, Dave Brat, a native of Alma, Mich.
* Cantor outspent Brat, by a 26-1 margin, expending more
than $5 million. Brat had about $40,000 available in the final weeks of the
campaign.
than $5 million. Brat had about $40,000 available in the final weeks of the
campaign.
* While Cantor won his 2012 Republican primary with 79
percent of the vote, he was soundly defeated by Brat, with a 55-44 percent
margin.
percent of the vote, he was soundly defeated by Brat, with a 55-44 percent
margin.
Absolutely no one saw this coming.
The initial reaction last night from the pundits was that
this shocker will be viewed as a big jolt for the tea party and it will sound
the death knell for immigration reform in Congress.
this shocker will be viewed as a big jolt for the tea party and it will sound
the death knell for immigration reform in Congress.
Upon further review, that outlook is probably wrong on
both counts. Brat hammered away at Cantor’s views in favor of a DREAM Act-style
immigration system to protect kids from deportation, but in the final weeks
Cantor started to waffle and made things worse for his candidacy.
both counts. Brat hammered away at Cantor’s views in favor of a DREAM Act-style
immigration system to protect kids from deportation, but in the final weeks
Cantor started to waffle and made things worse for his candidacy.
In any event, many polls show the majority of Americans in
favor of immigration reform. One survey found that a majority of tea party
people support some type of reform.
favor of immigration reform. One survey found that a majority of tea party
people support some type of reform.
As for Brat’s credentials as a tea party advocate, leaders
of the major tea party groups across the nation will be kicking themselves this
morning because they offered no support to Brat and, in fact, ignored the race,
failing to even endorse the challenger.
of the major tea party groups across the nation will be kicking themselves this
morning because they offered no support to Brat and, in fact, ignored the race,
failing to even endorse the challenger.
In other words, the national tea party movement has no
ownership of this extraordinary win.
ownership of this extraordinary win.
What’s more, the wins by wide margins scored earlier by
Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over tea party mavericks,
plus Sen. Lindsey Graham’s overwhelming victory last night in the South
Carolina GOP primary, certainly suggest no pattern here.
Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over tea party mavericks,
plus Sen. Lindsey Graham’s overwhelming victory last night in the South
Carolina GOP primary, certainly suggest no pattern here.
Graham, you may recall, serves as an especially hated
member of the Republican establishment for tea party loyalists nationwide. The
senator’s views on immigration were long ago derided as “Graham-nesty.” He won
last night with an edge of more than 40 points over his closest competitor.
member of the Republican establishment for tea party loyalists nationwide. The
senator’s views on immigration were long ago derided as “Graham-nesty.” He won
last night with an edge of more than 40 points over his closest competitor.
The growing consensus this morning is that Cantor, the No.
2 man of the House, was simply another out-of-touch lawmaker who fell victim to
an anti-incumbent mood within the electorate. Though his congressional district
lies just a 90-mile drive from the nation’s capital, he apparently spent a lot
of his time in Washington, not on the campaign trail. His eyes were on the
prize of the speakership, not re-election.
2 man of the House, was simply another out-of-touch lawmaker who fell victim to
an anti-incumbent mood within the electorate. Though his congressional district
lies just a 90-mile drive from the nation’s capital, he apparently spent a lot
of his time in Washington, not on the campaign trail. His eyes were on the
prize of the speakership, not re-election.
The best evidence of that mentality came yesterday
morning, Election Day in Cantor’s 7th District, when the Majority
Leader was nowhere to be found at the polling places. Instead, he was attending
a GOP fundraiser on Capitol Hill.
morning, Election Day in Cantor’s 7th District, when the Majority
Leader was nowhere to be found at the polling places. Instead, he was attending
a GOP fundraiser on Capitol Hill.
*****
Btw: One of the most interesting aspects of the upcoming
7th District general election race in the fall is that it will pit
two professors from the same tiny Virginia college against one another – Brat and
Jack
Trammell, the Democratic nominee. They both teach at Randolph-Macon College in
Ashland, Va.
7th District general election race in the fall is that it will pit
two professors from the same tiny Virginia college against one another – Brat and
Jack
Trammell, the Democratic nominee. They both teach at Randolph-Macon College in
Ashland, Va.
As apparently allowed under Virginia election law, Trammell,
who is even less well known than Brat was at the start of his campaign, was
chosen by Democratic Party leaders to serve as their nominee. That move
reportedly came only about a week ago after no candidate stepped up to run in
the Democratic primary.
who is even less well known than Brat was at the start of his campaign, was
chosen by Democratic Party leaders to serve as their nominee. That move
reportedly came only about a week ago after no candidate stepped up to run in
the Democratic primary.
*****
The New York Times has an analysis piece that makes the case
that Cantor’s loss will affect every aspect of Election 2014 and the remainder
of the current congressional session. The writers see shock waves that will
push the GOP even further to the right and virtually wipe out moderate views on
any issue that interests the tea party.
that Cantor’s loss will affect every aspect of Election 2014 and the remainder
of the current congressional session. The writers see shock waves that will
push the GOP even further to the right and virtually wipe out moderate views on
any issue that interests the tea party.
Here’s a portion of the story:
“(Cantor’s) demise will reverberate all the way to the speaker’s chair, pull the top
echelons of the House even further to the right and most likely doom any
ambitious legislation, possibly through the next presidential election.
echelons of the House even further to the right and most likely doom any
ambitious legislation, possibly through the next presidential election.
“Conservatives who have
helped fuel some of the most contentious showdowns over the last three years on
issues such as immigration and raising the federal debt
ceiling are likely to
be emboldened by Mr. Cantor’s shocking loss as they seek to replace him with
someone even more closely aligned with their views.
helped fuel some of the most contentious showdowns over the last three years on
issues such as immigration and raising the federal debt
ceiling are likely to
be emboldened by Mr. Cantor’s shocking loss as they seek to replace him with
someone even more closely aligned with their views.
“Further, House Republicans
began to immediately plot a new leadership structure that before Tuesday night
had hinged merely on whether Speaker John A. Boehner would seek to keep his
post next year.”
began to immediately plot a new leadership structure that before Tuesday night
had hinged merely on whether Speaker John A. Boehner would seek to keep his
post next year.”
