UPDATE: According to Kara Douma of MRG, their poll is solid and nearly in line with three recent surveys by national polling firms that put Hillary Clinton’s lead in Michigan at 7, 8 and 9 points, respectively. The most current survey by a state polling firm prior to the MRG effort, was conducted by Mitchell Research and gave Clinton a 13-point lead, 51-38 percent. MRG did their poll from Oct. 16-19; Mitchell’s poll was conducted in the middle of that time window, on Oct. 18. MLive offers a broad perspective of Michigan polls here.
*****
A new poll released late today shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Michigan by just five percentage points.
The Marketing Resource Group survey of Oct. 16-19 puts the race at 41 percent for the Democratic nominee, Clinton, and 36 percent for the Republican candidate, Trump. Eight percent are still undecided with less than three weeks to go before Election Day.
The MRG poll found that Clinton leads among women by 16 points and snags 78 percent of the Democratic vote statewide.
But those numbers could make some pundits view this survey as an outlier, as it does not match other Michigan and national polls regarding the statistical breakdowns in this race.
For example, the latest Detroit News poll, which had Clinton with a nearly 12-point edge over Trump, showed the Democrat with a 20-point margin with women — 48-28 percent among the biggest single voting bloc in the state.
And while MRG reports Clinton’s support among Democrats as 78 percent, most national polls put her in the high end of the 80 percent range.
The newest Detroit Free Press poll, which also gave Clinton a comfortable 12-point spread, found that the stragglers and doubters among the Millennial vote, in the 18-34 age group which tends to lean Democratic, gave Clinton a 44-22 edge.
While the MRG survey puts the race just outside of a statistical tie, it also reported that Trump’s favorable/unfavorable rating among Michigan voters is 29-60 percent, while Clinton is at 31-58 percent. Other polling indicates a much more favorable status for Clinton compared to Trump. Among the all-important independent voters in the state, Trump’s ratings in at least one other poll remain at a dismal 25-65 percent.
None of this is to suggest that the MRG poll is substantially faulty, but it is contrary to most public opinion monitoring that shows Clinton gaining ground.
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The polls you cite here were conducted a full week before the MRG poll. Three major national polling firms release surveys in Michigan this week with Clinton ahead +7, +8, and +9. Also, +5 is not outside the margin of error but does give Clinton about a 89% chance of a ballot lead. The MRG poll has a +10 Dem party ID.
As I pointed out yesterday, a five point lead is not “just outside” a statistical tie. I would be happy to explain margin of error, if you would like. In addition, I hope you would note the Reuters/Ipsos poll that came out today, Saturday, Oct. 22, that has Clinton up by 4 points in a two way race.