The four Republicans chasing frontrunner Paul Mitchell in the 10th Congressional District never had a chance.
In one of two key congressional races on Tuesday in Michigan, Mitchell had the money, he had the best strategy, and he essentially left the competition in the dust. Barring a monumental Democratic upset win in the November general election, the retired businessman is now the presumptive successor to outgoing Congresswoman Candice Miller. That’s a job he can probably keep for as long as he wants.
The open seat for the 10th District, with a political base in Macomb County, initially generated forecasts of a nasty battle dominated by Macomb contenders. In the end, the Macomb candidates divided the GOP vote to the extent that they were largely irrelevant. State Sen. Phil Pavlov of St. Clair County quickly emerged as Mitchell’s premier adversary.
While the other candidates were running low-budget, low-profile races that resembled a bid for a state House seat, Mitchell ran a full-fledged congressional campaign.
The former CEO of a for-profit vocational training school, Mitchell waged a $2.5 million effort, mostly with his own money, and produced several professionally produced TV ads over the past two months. In general, he outspent his opponents by a margin of 10-1 or more. But he also had some liabilities to overcome.
He had moved into the district last summer, to Dryden Township in Lapeer County, because of the open seat created by Miller. The change of scenery came for Mitchell after he unsuccessfully eyed far-flung elected positions in recent years, especially a failed bid for Congress in mid-Michigan two years ago. As in that 2014 loss to John Moolenaar, Mitchell’s willingness to dole out millions for a win became a campaign issue in 2016.
In retrospect, it appears that the carpetbagger critique was blunted some by Mitchell’s previous residency in St. Clair and his family roots elsewhere in the district, particularly in Sanilac County. The complaint that he was trying to buy the election never resonated, possibly because the Mitchell campaign was certainly not flashy. He methodically pounded away at his message as a conservative outsider, not a politician.
In the lead-up to this race, Mitchell chose one more run for office, in the 10th District, which extends from the industrial areas of Sterling Heights, through the upscale subdivisions of northern Macomb County and up to the tip of the Thumb area. His opponents consisted of former state senator Alan Sanborn of Macomb County (Richmond Township), state Rep. Tony Forlini of Macomb County (Harrison Township), newcomer David VanAssche of Macomb County (Shelby Township), and Pavlov, of St. Clair.
It’s probably no coincidence that in Michigan’s other competitive congressional race, in the Up North 1st District, the surprise winner on Tuesday was another outsider, Jack Bergman, a retired Marine general and a political rookie. The pro-outsider buzz fomented by Donald Trump reached down to the U.S. House level.
In the 10th District, Mitchell’s strategy from the beginning was to hold Pavlov to a draw within his state Senate district (which overlaps with much of the congressional district) and to beat him everywhere else. And that’s exactly what Mitchell did, coming within 440 votes of Pavlov on the senator’s home turf while dominating elsewhere.
That’s probably why, as the returns came in Tuesday night, Pavlov conceded to Mitchell very early, at about 10:15 p.m. Congresswoman Miller, who issued a statement at 11:10 p.m., long before the media realized that the race was over, had remained neutral throughout the campaign. In her statement Tuesday night she congratulated Mitchell on his win and said he “will be an outstanding member of Congress.”
Beginning in the spring, with Jamie Roe — a former longtime Miller chief of staff and campaign manager — at the helm, Mitchell engaged in an aggressive schedule of retail politicking throughout the expansive district.
The emergent TV ad campaign was unmatched, but it was also backed up by hundreds of ads on Facebook that reinforced the Mitchell message.
At this post-primary point in the campaign season, Mitchell can coast toward the fall election in a district that leans Republican. But Mitchell has an added advantage – a competitor who does not recognize what a congressional campaign is all about.
His Democratic opponent in November is former state representative Frank Accavitti, who lives outside the district, in Grosse Pointe Shores, but is still eligible to run in the 10th. A former Eastpointe mayor, Accavitti ran and lost badly for a state Senate seat several years ago. Since then, he has made a living as a Lansing lobbyist.
That’s not a good starting point. But what makes for a more revelatory starting point is a message Accavitti posted on Facebook this morning.
The message to supporters said he is seeking campaign donations of $5 or $20 or $100. Like his GOP counterparts who were running in the 10th District, Accavitti is running a low-budget affair against a multi-millionaire.
The numbers just don’t add up.
