I suspect there is near-panic in some Republican circles as the recent economic good news now qualifies as a trend, with today’s announcement that the unemployment rate in January fell to 8.3 percent, the lowest level in three years.
That’s great news for the White House and a blow to the GOP’s chances of defeating President Obama in November. But I don’t suspect the liberals will figure out an effective way of turning the new numbers into a strong campaign message.
Leave it to a Wall Street Journal guy, someone who reports on the economy on a regular basis, to point out the most interesting numbers of all.
The WSJ’s Neil King sent a tweet this morning that said Ronald Reagan inherited a 7.5 percent jobless rate. The unemployment level then soared to 10.8 percent. By January of 1984, with the Reagan’s re-election bid in full swing, the jobless number had dropped to 8 percent.
What’s fascinating, King notes, is that Obama’s numbers are almost identical: 7.6 percent inherited from George W. Bush, 10.2 percent at the height of the financial meltdown, and 8.3 percent in January of his re-election year.
If the Democrats had anyone near the capabilities of the GOP’s messaging team, they would have a field day with that comparison. I would argue that those numbers, combined with an optimistic outlook (“It’s time for the sunrise in America?”) could sway the entire election.
In addition, here’s something the GOP never saw coming: Last month saw the second largest monthly gain in U.S. manufacturing employment since the heyday of 1998, and the nation has added more than 400,000 new manufacturing jobs the last two years.
One advantage the Republicans have is that the attitude of consumers/voters clearly has not caught up with the emerging economic realities. If consumer confidence bounces back in the next few months, that will further drive the economy and could give Obama a victory that seemed highly unlikely just six months ago.
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| Source: Sen. Carl Levin; Bureau of Labor Statistics |


A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-