I suspect there is near-panic in some Republican circles as the recent economic good news now qualifies as a trend, with today’s announcement that the unemployment rate in January fell to 8.3 percent, the lowest level in three years.
That’s great news for the White House and a blow to the GOP’s chances of defeating President Obama in November. But I don’t suspect the liberals will figure out an effective way of turning the new numbers into a strong campaign message.
Leave it to a Wall Street Journal guy, someone who reports on the economy on a regular basis, to point out the most interesting numbers of all.
The WSJ’s Neil King sent a tweet this morning that said Ronald Reagan inherited a 7.5 percent jobless rate. The unemployment level then soared to 10.8 percent. By January of 1984, with the Reagan’s re-election bid in full swing, the jobless number had dropped to 8 percent.
What’s fascinating, King notes, is that Obama’s numbers are almost identical: 7.6 percent inherited from George W. Bush, 10.2 percent at the height of the financial meltdown, and 8.3 percent in January of his re-election year.
If the Democrats had anyone near the capabilities of the GOP’s messaging team, they would have a field day with that comparison. I would argue that those numbers, combined with an optimistic outlook (“It’s time for the sunrise in America?”) could sway the entire election.
In addition, here’s something the GOP never saw coming: Last month saw the second largest monthly gain in U.S. manufacturing employment since the heyday of 1998, and the nation has added more than 400,000 new manufacturing jobs the last two years.
One advantage the Republicans have is that the attitude of consumers/voters clearly has not caught up with the emerging economic realities. If consumer confidence bounces back in the next few months, that will further drive the economy and could give Obama a victory that seemed highly unlikely just six months ago.

Source: Sen. Carl Levin; Bureau of Labor Statistics