The newest statewide presidential poll, conducted for The Detroit News, not only shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by seven points, it also reveals a 40-point divide between the state’s two main election battlegrounds of Oakland and Macomb counties.
Trump, the Republican nominee, is up by 20 points in Macomb County, but Clinton, the Democratic standardbearer, has a 20-point lead next door, in Oakland County. For many decades, from 1960 to about 2000, Oakland was reliably Republican and Macomb was a Democratic stronghold.
“These are two very different counties,” said pollster Richard Czuba in a video interview with the News. “It’s kind of a flipped script, for those of us who have been in Michigan for years. It used to be the other way.”
Czuba’s polling firm, Glengariff Group Inc., conducted the survey on Tuesday and Wednesday, after the presidential debate. The numbers are: Clinton, 42 percent; Trump, 35 percent; Libertarian Gary Johnson, 9 percent; and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, 3 percent. Another 9 percent remain undecided.
Not only are Oakland and Macomb the second- and third-largest counties in the state, respectively, they are both highly competitive territories compared to other large counties like Wayne, Kent and Washtenaw. The latest survey found that Clinton’s early August edge in west and southwest Michigan has vanished.
Oakland County has experienced dramatic demographic shifts over the past 20 years that have added much more diversity to the electorate. Macomb’s demographic makeup has also been evolving, though mostly in certain pockets of the county.
As the News’ Chad Livengood put it, the race in Michigan may shape up as “a tale of two counties.”
Trump’s anti-status quo approach throughout his rogue campaign certainly appeals to the maverick voters in Macomb. The News points out that “he has built a base of blue-collar support as he rails against international trade deals that he blames for the decline in manufacturing jobs in Michigan since Clinton’s husband was president.”
However, Trump’s support in Macomb is not limited to traditional blue collar areas. In the March GOP primary, Trump won by landslide proportions in Harrison Township, Clinton Township, Shelby Township and Sterling Heights.
According to Czuba, Trump’s horrendous showing among Michigan women, with just 27 percent support, is especially a problem in Oakland, where female voters have tended to be moderate Republicans.
Trump has a late-afternoon rally planned today at the Suburban Collection Showplace in Novi.
Photo: NBC News
