John Avlon, one of the premier political columnists in the nation and one of
the top experts on independents/moderates/centrists, recently posted a column that, with
the help of his Daily Beast colleague Doug Schoen, breaks down in an intriguing
way what’s happening in the political center.
 |
| Schoen photo/powerof thevote.com |
According to Schoen, a Fox News political analyst, it appears that a lot of the movement Mitt Romney is enjoying in the post-debate
polls is the result of independents, particularly women, becoming more
comfortable with the Republican nominee.
Here’s a portion of the Avlon column:
“Independents are right-leaning voters who were angry at Republicans and (George
W.) Bush in the past. They will punish Republicans if they are too
extreme,” says former Clinton pollster and Daily Beast contributor Doug
Schoen. “And a lot of moderates are Democrats who wouldn’t go as far left
as Obama. But until Tuesday’s debate, they saw Romney as a right-wing
extremist.”
“What Romney did in the
debate is show independents ‘I’m not an extremist—I’m a moderate fiscal
conservative; That’s why he talked up bipartisanship so much,” adds Schoen.
“And that’s why Obama is now trying to say that Romney was lying.”
We don’t yet have (enough)
polls to confirm the impact of the first debate on the state of the race.
But Schoen predicts that “you’re going to see independents swing toward Romney,
at least temporarily … This election is going to come down to 100,000 to
150,000 independents and moderate voters in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and a few
other states. And if Gov. Romney can consolidate a 10-point lead among
independents and pull even with centrists, then he’ll win the
presidency.”
