Amazingly, it appears that immigration reform is one
issue where compromise is likely in Washington, thanks to the bipartisan,
out-of-the-spotlight work accomplished by the so-called “Gang of Eight” in the
Senate.
issue where compromise is likely in Washington, thanks to the bipartisan,
out-of-the-spotlight work accomplished by the so-called “Gang of Eight” in the
Senate.
Of course, this sudden cooperation has more to do with
winning elections than creating solid public policy. The Republicans, who
previously talked about deporting 10 million illegal immigrants and joked about
building an electrified fence at the border, now realize that they have a
serious problem attracting Hispanic votes.
winning elections than creating solid public policy. The Republicans, who
previously talked about deporting 10 million illegal immigrants and joked about
building an electrified fence at the border, now realize that they have a
serious problem attracting Hispanic votes.
After some basic calculations centered on future
demographic trends, they’ve decided that pulling a major flip-flop on the immigration
issue and wooing Hispanic voters is good politics.
demographic trends, they’ve decided that pulling a major flip-flop on the immigration
issue and wooing Hispanic voters is good politics.
Beyond Capitol Hill, the AFL-CIO and the Chamber of
Commerce came
to an agreement on the key sticking point of how to handle guest workers.
Commerce came
to an agreement on the key sticking point of how to handle guest workers.
The number of guest-worker visas will begin at 20,000 and
rise, within five years, to 75,000. According to The Washington Post, the future
number can vary between 20,000 and 200,000 based on a formula that takes
several economic factors into account.
rise, within five years, to 75,000. According to The Washington Post, the future
number can vary between 20,000 and 200,000 based on a formula that takes
several economic factors into account.
Ezra Klein of the Post calls the deal “a classic
political compromise” because it splits the difference between the chamber’s
interest in more guest workers and labor’s interest in keeping wages high. Split-the-difference
compromises are available but rarely taken because, in Washington, the two
sides don’t actually want a compromise.
political compromise” because it splits the difference between the chamber’s
interest in more guest workers and labor’s interest in keeping wages high. Split-the-difference
compromises are available but rarely taken because, in Washington, the two
sides don’t actually want a compromise.
Here’s how Klein sums things up on his Wonkbook blog:
“Bipartisanship is, unusually, a precious political
resource that the minority party has exclusive control over. It is entirely in
their power to make even an accommodating president look like a
polarizing figure who’s unable to work constructively with the minority party.
And more to the point, it’s entirely in their interest.
resource that the minority party has exclusive control over. It is entirely in
their power to make even an accommodating president look like a
polarizing figure who’s unable to work constructively with the minority party.
And more to the point, it’s entirely in their interest.
“Elections really are zero-sum affairs. For one party to
win, the other has to lose. The incentives this creates are stunningly dysfunctional.
Imagine a workplace where the only way to win a promotion was for the boss to
fire your colleague. Even worse, if he likes your colleague’s work, you get a
pay cut. Now imagine that your colleague needs your help to finish a big,
difficult project. Think you’re going to help him?
win, the other has to lose. The incentives this creates are stunningly dysfunctional.
Imagine a workplace where the only way to win a promotion was for the boss to
fire your colleague. Even worse, if he likes your colleague’s work, you get a
pay cut. Now imagine that your colleague needs your help to finish a big,
difficult project. Think you’re going to help him?
“This is why Washington is bitterly polarized place. The
rules of politics are designed such that it’s not in the interest of the
minority party to work with the majority party. There are moments when
countervailing forces — be they public opinion or policy desires — can overcome
the basic zero-sum nature of politics. But they’re increasingly rare.
rules of politics are designed such that it’s not in the interest of the
minority party to work with the majority party. There are moments when
countervailing forces — be they public opinion or policy desires — can overcome
the basic zero-sum nature of politics. But they’re increasingly rare.
“Immigration reform, however, sits at the center of an
unusual convergence of forces that have made it positive-sum politics.
Democrats believe in the policy, but they also believe that it’s good — even
essential — politics to deliver on the number-one priority of the growing
Hispanic electorate. Many Republicans also believe in the policy, and almost
all Republicans believe that if their party is to prosper, they need to agree
to immigration reform to show Hispanic voters that the GOP isn’t hostile to
their interests.”
unusual convergence of forces that have made it positive-sum politics.
Democrats believe in the policy, but they also believe that it’s good — even
essential — politics to deliver on the number-one priority of the growing
Hispanic electorate. Many Republicans also believe in the policy, and almost
all Republicans believe that if their party is to prosper, they need to agree
to immigration reform to show Hispanic voters that the GOP isn’t hostile to
their interests.”
