For many years political pundits – and quite a few political science scholars – have insisted that independent voters are actually “closet partisans” or low-information voters or people who sit the fence and make last-minute decisions about voting.
As I’ve said many times, if you believe that, come to Macomb County.
Though the Macomb electorate is changing, this county has always been well-populated with independents and ticket-splitters. The self-serving narrative pushed by right wingers and left wingers that independents don’t exist is laughable to anyone who has observed Macomb politics through the years.
A new report released by Third Way, a centrist group, attempts to dispose of the canard about independents. But the report does so in such a way that’s almost comical. They seem amazed by statistics that show independents may vote Republican for Congress in one election and Democratic in the next. I imagine they would find some of Macomb’s past ticket splitting just mind boggling. Ronald Reagan and Dave Bonior on the same ballot – and both won?
In any event, here are a few excerpts and summaries from the report:
“Independent voters are not a myth—they do exist, and even when they say they
lean a certain way at one point in time, that allegiance is much less consistent than that of even “weak” partisans.”
According to data from the American National Election Studies, which followed the same people over three successive elections, in 2000, 73% of the Democratic-leaning independents voted for a Democrat for Congress. In 2002, 54% of them voted for the Democrat. And in 2004, 62% did.
Some 40% of voters say they are independents and the report concludes that while many independents will say they lean Democratic or Republican, they are actually persuadable and open to either party.
One more thing: the report finds that the Democrats are particularly susceptible to losing the independent vote, especially compared to their success in 2008.
“If Democrats want to assemble a sustained majority, they will need to woo the leaners,” the report concludes. “But if they follow the party activists on the left, the tent will likely come crashing down.”
