According to a statewide poll, in a hypothetical matchup between Obama and ex-governor Romney, the incumbent holds a tentative lead in Macomb by a 44 percent to 42 percent margin. When poll respondents were asked about a fall race with former House speaker Newt Gingrich, Obama had a similarly narrow margin, 46 percent to 40 percent.
I must caution that these are a small slice of results from an EPIC/MRA poll that surveyed 600 Michigan voters, so the Macomb margin of error is large. Yet, if we do not focus too sharply on specific numbers, the poll reveals some interesting dynamics heading into 2012, a presidential election year and the second year at the helm for Gov. Snyder.
First, the Macomb voters – and voters across Michigan – are behind the curve in their perception of the Michigan economy. While the metrics are improving and the auto industry is staging a spectacular comeback, too many consumers/voters appear to be stuck in a 2011 time warp.
For example, nearly a majority of Macomb voters said the state is no better off under Snyder’s policies than a year ago. Our county was about equally split between those who said we were better or worse off compared to the start of the Snyder administration.
One number that really stood out for me in the statewide poll was that only 54 percent of Republicans, a bare majority, said that Michigan is better off under Snyder than it was a year ago.
That number comes after 2011 produced a juggernaut of Republican legislation in Lansing, with Snyder getting all he wanted – and more. After a year like that, the 54 percent figure has to be a GOP disappointment. Worse yet, among the all-important independents, only 27 percent said Michigan is a better place to live than it was at the start of 2011.
Despite the solid Republican majorities in the state House and Senate, EPIC/MRA pollster Bernie Porn said GOP lawmakers are worried about Snyder’s gender gap, with lagging support among women. The pall that remains over the entire electorate is disarming for those in elected office.
“Nobody’s all that enthusiastic. I think they (GOP legislators) took a look at (previous) numbers for Republican women and they held back on the amount of cutting for education and the degree to which they were going to tax pensions,” Porn said.
In Macomb County, a recent online survey of 500 businesses showed much more optimism than we’re hearing from the local electorate.
One major difference between Macomb and the rest of the state came when voters were asked in the survey who or what caused the 2011 improvement in unemployment rates in Michigan.
Statewide survey respondents credited the pickup in the national economy or residents fleeing the state and reducing the competition for jobs. The auto industry’s rebound was viewed as a relatively minor factor. Among both state and Macomb voters, very little credit was given to Obama or Snyder.
However, the top reason cited for improvements in the jobs market by Macomb voters was the auto industry. That’s reasonable given the Big Three’s investment of more than $1 billion in Macomb County factories, accompanied by an increase in jobs.
One last item in the poll that was eye catching came when Macomb voters were asked to give a favorable/ unfavorable rating to native son Romney. The numbers were evenly split but only because 26 percent said they were undecided and 10 percent said they don’t know much about the candidate.
If Romney arrives in Michigan for our Feb. 28 primary and more than one-third of voters in Macomb County — a traditionally blue-collar community that should be well aware of Romney’s heritage as the son of former American Motors Corp. president and former Michigan governor George Romney — don’t know what to think of him, his Michigan campaign could be in a bit of trouble.
The former Massachusetts governor is already up against substantial criticism about his past remarks opposing federal bridge loans for Chrysler and General Motors when he said: “Let Detroit go bankrupt.”
With Democrats talking about a dirty-tricks campaign to cross over and vote for Ron Paul in the GOP primary, if Romney produces a mediocre win in Michigan, the national Republican Party may write off the Great Lakes State in the general election before Romney even has the chance to deliver his acceptance speech at this summer’s GOP convention.
