New Gallup polling data from all 50 states shows that the number of solidly Democratic states has been cut in half in comparison to 2008, which suggest that 2012 could be considerably closer than the last one.
The number of solidly Democratic states has declined from 30 in 2008 to just 14 in 2010. Though Michigan now has a Republican governor and strong GOP majorities in the state House and Senate, Gallup still lists us as Democrat-leaning state. That’s because the polling is based on which party voters say they identify with. Any state where one side has a double-digit edge in party affiliation is defined by Gallup as “solid” for that party.
As Chris Cillizza points out in The Washington Post, of the 16 states that moved out of the “solidly Democratic” column over the past two years, 12 of them are now defined as “competitive” — where the two sides are separated by less than five points on the party affiliation question. Three are rated by Gallup as “lean Democratic” (a Democratic Party affiliation advantage of between five and ten points).
New Hampshire is the lone state that swung from solidly Democratic to leans Republican over the past two years. During that time Democratic affiliation dropped by 11.3 percentage points in the Granite State, according to Cillizza.
While election results in New Hampshire mirrored that swing — Republicans won both U.S. House seats and an open U.S. Senate seat in 2010 — party affiliation numbers are not always indicative of what happens at the ballot box.
For example, the dozen states that moved from solidly Democratic to competitive over the past few years include states like Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Tennessee — all of which went for Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2008.
(The explanation? Cillizza writes that many people in the South long identified themselves as Democrats even though at the federal level they voted only for Republicans. The last two years has seen an exodus of these so-called “Yellow Dog Democrats” to the GOP.
One reason to be skeptical is that Gallup polls all adults on the party affiliation question, not just registered or likely voters. That means it’s risky to predict 2012 based on these numbers. Many of the people who are included in the surveys are not people who can or will show up at the ballot box.
“Usually Democratic affiliation is higher in the general population than the smaller voting electorate in each state, given generally higher rates of voter participation by Republicans,” said Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones.
Nonetheless, a broad look at Gallup’s state-by-state party affiliation numbers suggest that 2012 will be more like the closely contested presidential races of 2000 or 2004 elections rather than 2008, when Obama posted a 28-state, 365 electoral-vote victory in 2008.
