At the National Journal, Charlie Cook, considered one of the most astute analysts of congressional elections, wrote this morning that Republicans continue to wildly misread the results of the November 2010 elections and fail to acknowledge that it is independents and ticket-splitters who are in control.
Cook began this way: “One of the biggest and most frequent mistakes in politics is for a party to misread its mandate. When it happens, independent and swing voters get angry and punish a candidate or a party on (the next) Election Day. Because American politics is a zero-sum game, punishing one party means rewarding the other party — even when the latter is not necessarily deserving of support.
“Frequently, the party that benefits from the spanking mistakenly interprets it to mean that the public is embracing every aspect of its agenda. Republicans shouldn’t forget that their party had dismal favorable/unfavorable poll ratings last fall. They won because they weren’t Democrats.
“There is no question that the Republican base, conservatives, and supporters of the tea party want to take a meat ax to government spending. When Republican congressional members return home and meet with their constituents, they are encouraged to vote against continuing resolutions and for deep spending cuts. These supporters have intensity, and they adamantly oppose any compromise with Democrats.
“It would be a blunder, however, to think that such views drove the election. Republicans, conservatives, and tea partiers did not throw Republicans out of their House and Senate majorities in 2006, and they did not vote to increase the size of the Democratic majorities and elect Barack Obama president in 2008.
“Independent voters were the ones who cast their ballots for Democrats by an 18-point margin in 2006 because they were mad at President Bush and upset about the war in Iraq, not to mention Republican scandals and the general performance of the GOP Congress. Two years later, these same voters were still angry at the president, were afraid of the financial crisis, and didn’t care for GOP presidential nominee John McCain.
“In 2010, these independent voters were unimpressed by the economic-stimulus package, didn’t like cap-and-trade environmental regulation, and really didn’t like the Democratic health care package. Those over or approaching 65 years of age also feared that health care reform would erode Medicare benefits. Even those unaffected by the reforms rallied to defend Medicare.”
Cook goes on to explain that the polling paints a clear picture, with voters expecting the impossible: a balanced budget, no tax hikes and no cuts in the big entitlement programs. The pundit also warns that GOP lawmakers would be wise to take off their blinders and pay attention to a wider audience, not just the hardcore Republicans who dominate primary elections.
Cook bluntly adds that it’s “a little short of suicidal” for the GOP to push any type of Medicare reforms.
“Polling is very clear,” Cook said. “Most voters want to see the federal budget balanced and spending cut. However, they don’t want Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid touched, and, oh yes, they don’t want taxes increased. Now, anyone with an IQ over room temperature knows that all of this (combined) is impossible. Spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, along with interest on the national debt, amounts to approximately half the federal budget.
“Congressional Republicans … would be well advised to pay attention to the results of the latest Pew Research Center poll … that asked Americans whether they would prefer that their lawmakers stand by their principles, even if it meant that the government would shut down, or whether they would rather have their lawmakers compromise on a budget, even if they didn’t agree with it.
“Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who agree with the tea party movement, 68 percent said they would rather have a lawmaker who stands by his or her principles. But among all Republicans, only 50 percent said (they should) stand by their principles, while 43 percent said compromise. Among all adults, 55 percent said compromise and 53 percent of independents agreed.”

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