Does Rick Santorum have big momentum behind him for today’s caucuses or not?
Though the media has latched onto the former senator with a near frenzy, it’s not clear if he can manage anything more that a respectable third.
Erika Fry of the Columbia Journalism Review reports that after Santorum surged to third in the polls, reports that he had caught fire on the ground, with voters swarming him, were way off the mark.
“Here in Cedar Rapids,” she wrote last Friday, “I have yet to witness this ‘circus.’ The atmosphere at a Santorum town hall event here on Wednesday night was less-than-enthusiastic. I had assumed there would be a crush of reporters, and probably people, too, given the day’s big news that Santorum was surging. In fact, there were only a handful of reporters and a staid crowd of 80-some Iowans. They were respectful and asked questions — a few of them nodded with the occasional, fervent ‘uh-huh’ — but they lacked the hum, energy and size of crowds I’ve seen here at Gingrich, Romney, and Perry events.
The Des Moines Register’s William Petroski, who has been covering Santorum for much of the campaign, offered this insight from an event on Thursday:
“Santorum spoke to about 60 people at a town hall meeting in the Coralville City Council chambers. About half of the crowd was Iowa and national news media who are covering his campaign, which has appeared to be gaining momentum heading into Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses.
Yet, Petroski’s colleague at the Register, Kathie Obradovich, sees a very different picture. Maybe intra-state geography is a factor.
Here’s Obradovich’s report from Monday:
“The Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co., said Saturday that she can’t remember seeing such a dramatic surge for a previous caucus candidate in the final days of polling. Santorum started at 10 percent on Tuesday night among likely GOP caucusgoers. He rocketed to 22 percent by the end of polling Friday, just 1 percentage point behind Mitt Romney. The four-day average puts him in third place at 15 percent, but he’s on fire, while Romney has held steady and Ron Paul has gone cold.
Romney could still win on Tuesday night. Based on the Iowa Poll’s trend lines, Romney seems like a much better bet than Paul. Not only that, Romney campaigned in Iowa through the crucial final weekend, while Paul pulled out until Monday. Paul started the week neck-and-neck with Romney, but by Friday had dropped 13 percentage points under a barrage of negative advertising.
Meanwhile, Santorum has taken quite a few shots over the past 48 hours for: securing plenty of earmarks while serving in the Senate, a resume that qualifies him as a career politician, and an abortion record that is not pure enough.
