If further evidence was needed to demonstrate that the rightward-leaning Republican presidential field is failing among independents and women, the new Gallup/USA poll provides ample material.
The survey measured the strength of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in the 12 swing states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — and found that Obama leads Romney 51 percent to 42 percent.
That’s a pretty solid lead for a president overseeing a weak economy and suffering from mediocre job approval ratings. What’s more, the last poll of those 12 states, conducted a month ago, found Romney with a two point lead over the president.
The reason is because of a big gender gap that has emerged since the Republicans engaged in some crazy talk about restricting or banning contraception. In mid-February, Obama took less than half of the vote from women under 50 years old. Now, he secures a solid 60 percent among that group. The incumbent is ahead of Romney among all women by 18 points.
I don’t see Romney changing that trend anytime soon. In Wisconsin, not exactly a Bible Belt state, he is still aggressively pursuing votes among fundamentalist Christians as a means of preventing a Rick Santorum rebound.
For Romney, his shortcomings with women and independents will only get worse in the coming months.
In this Republican primary season, contraception and Planned Parenthood and abortion restrictions are discussed in a very different way than in the general election. You can bet the Obama campaign will find ways to make Romney look like a desperate candidate who embraced some right-wing ideas in order to win the nomination.
The Romney camp may be counting on an Etch A Sketch transformation once the nomination is locked up, but some GOP analysts who cringed throughout the contraception debate think it will take time for Romney to soften his image and tack to the center.
Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post put it this way:
“The question for Romney is when he will get a chance on a big stage to re-fashion his image. Linda Divall, a Republican pollster, said that moment not come for a while.
“‘All Republican candidates suffer from a gender gap,’ she said. ‘It is particularly acute right now and Romney will not be able to address it in a significant fashion until he is reintroduced to the public in a different light — meaning his convention speech.’”