Over the past three decades, thanks to initiatives by local school boards, state officials and the federal government, high school graduation rates have improved dramatically, while little effort has been made to score a similar accomplishment at the college level.
Yet, a new study published today finds that reducing university dropout levels to the high school standard would emphatically improve the U.S. economy, raising employment and worker pay while reducing poverty, cutting the number of people who rely on public assistance programs, and boosting tax revenues.
And the playbook for all of this — the success stories that point the way — is already available.
According to the report by Third Way, a centrist-leaning research group, just 57 percent of students who enroll in college graduate within eight years. This leaves us with millions of workers adrift in the “some college” category, working paycheck-to-paycheck and unable to break out of their lower-middle class lifestyle.
This phenomenon represents the “skills gap” that produces a significant sector of the adult population employed but struggling financially. The quickly emerging “knowledge economy” could mean that a significant majority of job openings could require a college degree within just the next few years. Third Way makes the case that simply matching the college grad rate to the high school completion rate, 84 percent, would produce a dramatic effect:
What if rather than accepting these middling (college) completion rates, we made a major push to increase the number of students leaving college with a degree in hand? Similar efforts in the K-12 system increased high school graduation rates by 15 percentage points since the 1990s and to their highest levels to date. But college completion has been an afterthought.
… Of those ages 25-29, the average associate’s degree holder earned nearly $4,949 more (annually) than those who had completed “some college,” and over $6,056 more than a high school graduate. And bachelor’s degree graduates stood to benefit an additional $19,034 on average compared to someone with some college but no degree.
In an era when few college freshmen receive their degree within the traditional 4-year timeframe, measurements of success have shifted.
So, the Third Way study calculated that a national effort to match high school and college completion could mean a 48 percent increase in higher-ed graduation rates over an 8-year window. That huge gain would be attainable because 55 percent of those in the some-college category already have finished two years or more of studies, and 14 percent are the level of three years or more.
To be clear, the study does not fully take into account the number of college dropouts due to the exorbitant cost of tuition and student loans. It also does not factor in the old saw that “some kids are just not college material” – even if they discover that reality a year or two after enrolling.
At the same time, some economists question how closely the lagging number of college graduates is connected to the nation’s skills gap. What’s more, some university officials in the past have questioned Third Way’s methods of deciphering college grad rates.
Nonetheless, the ongoing matter of mediocre college graduation rates could arise as a major issue over the next few years in Washington and in numerous state capitals.
A 2017 report by an Ann Arbor-based research group, Michigan Future Inc., laid out a blunt critique of universities’ inability to tackle the grad rate affliction that leads to poor student outcomes.
The Michigan Future study concluded that Michigan public universities with minimal admittance standards suffer from graduation rates over a student’s 6-year window of just 35 to 55 percent. The success rate for minority students is much worse.
At community colleges, in Michigan and across the nation, while 81 percent of first-time enrollees say they want to go on to earn a bachelor’s degree, only 12 percent do so in six years, and two-thirds of community college students fail to get any type of degree – a certificate, associate’s degree or bachelor’s degree. The report concluded that all Metro Detroit community colleges have associate’s degree attainment rates under 20 percent for first-time, full-time students over a span of three years.
In Michigan, where public investment in K-12 schools has declined over the past 25 years by more than any other state in the nation, leading to school performance rankings near the bottom of the 50 states, it’s no surprise that many kids who earn a high school diploma are far from “college ready” when they arrive on campus.
Compounding this overwhelming problem is that the state’s universities have failed to take the necessary steps to dramatically improve their incoming enrollees’ ability to stay in the game and achieve a college degree. For minorities, the results are particularly devastating.
Recent numbers that compared completions from 2002-16 found that graduation rates over six years among minority students at Wayne State in Detroit, the largest urban university in the state, stood at an embarrassing 17 percent.
Over that same timeframe, some universities nationwide made major progress. Chief among them is the relatively obscure Georgia State University, where the 6-year graduation rate in 2016 for minorities jumped to 57 percent.
Michigan Future concluded that detailed “best practices” data are readily available for every U.S. university. But few campus officials focus on getting their students to the finish line.
“If institutions aren’t committed to a student success playbook, the leadership of the institution should be held accountable,” the study warned. “… Student demographics are no excuse.”
