Polls measuring the volatile Michigan race for governor have received considerable media attention in recent days but the biggest factor in these surveys may be that voters’ television viewing habits shape the campaign as much as any other factor.

Polling by the Glengariff Group shows that Democratic newcomer Shri Thanedar holds a narrow lead in the Democratic gubernatorial race over party favorite Gretchen Whitmer (above, right), thanks to the wealthy businessman’s investment of millions of dollars in TV advertising.

At the same time, the survey indicates that Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette (above, left) has a wide lead in the GOP gubernatorial primary over Lt. Gov. Brian Calley mostly due to Schuette’s overwhelming support among Fox News watchers – a 45-16 percent margin. Schuette has the Trump endorsement in the Michigan race and the president’s approval ratings are sky-high among Republicans who mostly spend their time paying attention to Fox or talk radio.

This media-based election data could mark an extraordinary turning point in the factors that determine 2018 Michigan elections.

For example, on the Democratic side, Thanedar holds a large lead over Whitmer among Dem voters that get their news primarily from local television, while Whitmer holds a significant lead among those that get their news by radio and newspapers. Thanedar’s TV ads have been aired repea

Thanedar

tedly on Detroit area stations that cater to low-income audiences.

As a result, Thanedar, the political neophyte, enjoys a 69 percent name ID in Detroit compared to 35 percent for Whitmer. In what must be a shock to Democratic Party leaders, among Detroit Dem primary voters Thanedar leads Whitmer 37-8 percent. The poll also showed that, in suburban Wayne County, Thanedar has 83 percent name ID while Whitmer sits at just 50 percent.

Meanwhile, in the Republican primary race, among voters who get their political coverage from Fox News — a highly intense conservative voting bloc — Bill Schuette holds a commanding 29-point lead over Calley. But among all other Republican voters with differing news sources, the race for the GOP nomination is close.

The Glengariff polls hold an exemplary status within a key Michigan Republican Party constituency – the Michigan Chamber of Commerce – so that these new numbers will determine the format at the upcoming candidate debate hosted by the Chamber Leadership Conference on Mackinac Island. In fact, as a result of this poll, GOP candidate Jim Hines has been eliminated from participation in the Mackinac debate due to his low-single-digit voter support.

Overall, the Glengariff poll found that in the Democratic primary, Thanedar holds a minimal statistical lead over Whitmer, 30-26 percent, with all other Dem candidates far behind. On the GOP side, Schuette holds a 36-23 percent advantage over Calley, with no other Republican candidates competitive.

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