Bernie Sanders might be on the verge of winning the Iowa caucuses but, if he does, that will spark a lot indigestion among the Democratic Party establishment.
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that the primary season may be dominated by a captive audience of Dem left-wingers who are skewing the race toward Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Specifically, the argument that many voters lean toward favoring socialism over capitalism was shredded by this national survey.
Fifty-two percent of all voters say they have a positive view of capitalism, versus 18 percent who have a negative opinion. The numbers are reversed for socialism, with 53 percent having a negative view and 19 percent a positive one.
But the splits within the poll, by demographics and partisan loyalties, show that the Vermont senator running as a democratic socialist could prove disastrous in the general election if he wins the Democratic nomination.
The NBC/WSJ poll found that liberal Democratic primary voters widely approve of socialism but key general election voters have a decidedly negative view of such a leftward shift.
Overall, Dem primary voters have a net-positive impression of socialism (40 percent positive, 23 percent negative), and the party’s voters ages 18-34 view it even more favorably (51 percent to 14 percent).
But independents (with a -45 net rating), suburban voters and swing-state voters have a much more negative impression of socialism. Without significant support for the Dem nominee from that voting bloc in the fall, President Trump is almost assured of winning re-election.
Of course, it should be noted that the poll reflects public opinion about socialism within the current context – a European-style socialism where government pays for numerous services, not true socialism where the government takes over private sector businesses.
But beyond this big split within the Democratic Party, it should also be noted that arguments have been made for years that Iowa should not go first in the presidential primary season. And the messy 2012 caucuses on the GOP side gave the state a big black eye.
One warning: With such a tight race tonight among several Democratic candidates, do not accept any results as final for the next few days.
