Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg political report is
taking flak for labeling the Michigan Senate seat that Carl Levin is vacating a
“Safe Democrat” seat.
But Rothenberg is not backing down. In a piece he wrote
for Roll Call, Rothenberg explained his reasoning and, with the clear-eyed view
of an outsider, reminds Michigan Republicans of their abysmal track record.
The political analyst offers some basic Michigan election
stats:
* Democrats have won the past six presidential elections
and 11 of the past 12 Senate elections. The lone Senate win came in 1994 when a
huge national Republican wave helped Spencer Abraham win retiring Democratic
Sen. Don Riegle’s open seat. Abraham lost after one term to  Debbie
Stabenow.
 * Three of the last four GOP Senate nominees — Andy“Rocky”
Raczkowski in 2002, Jack Hoogendyk in 2008 and Peter
Hoekstra in 2012 — failed to reach the 39 percent mark, while the fourth,
2006 nominee Mike Bouchard, drew about 41 percent against Stabenow.
* The closest presidential race in the state since 1988
(when George H.W. Bush carried it comfortably) was in 2004, when Democratic challenger
John
Kerry defeated President George W. Bush by about 3 1/2 points at the same
time that Bush was being re-elected nationally by about 2 1/2 points. And Mitt
Romney’s performance in Michigan (one of his home states) went especially
badly, with Obama winning by more than nine points, far above his nationwide
margin of victory.
Rothenberg’s conclusion is that Michigan is a Blue State
where Republicans have had a hard time finding strong candidates for Senate races,
and “Michigan has a well-earned reputation of being a state where Republicans
float their names to get attention and then eventually decide not to run.”
The longtime political prognosticator offers this warning
to those who point to GOP success in races for state office:
“Michigan’s governor, secretary of state and attorney
general are all Republicans, and the party controls both houses of the state Legislature.
Doesn’t that prove the state is competitive and the GOP has a reasonable chance
of winning an open Senate seat, particularly during a midterm election?
“No, for two reasons. First, as I have written ad nauseam,
voters traditionally have evaluated candidates for state office differently
than they have for federal office. Republicans can get elected governor in
Democratic states such as Hawaii, Maryland and even Vermont but have no chance
in Senate races or presidential contests in those states. Similarly, voters
will elect a Democratic governor from time to time in Republican states such as
Wyoming or Kansas but refuse to send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate.
“Second, while Republicans have held some statewide
offices in Michigan for years, the party’s current strength in the state can be
traced back to the GOP wave of 2010, when swing voters around the country
pulled the party’s lever up and down the ballot. Republicans went into that
election with a narrow majority in the state Senate and in the clear minority
in the state House but came out of the election with a huge majority in the
state Senate and a comfortable one in the state House. Because of that
election, Republicans controlled redistricting, both at the state and federal
levels, giving the party a chance to draw districts that would enhance the
chances that they will control those districts throughout the decade.”
Very astute observations.