There’s something happening out there. With just six weeks until Election Day, it seems the Michigan Republican Party’s hopes for a wave election have crashed against a rocky shore.
For whatever reason, voters are shying away from GOP Gov. Rick Snyder and Republican Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land.
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Snyder finds himself locked in a neck-and-neck contest with former Democratic congressman Mark Schauer, a development that few political analysts expected this late in the game.
Land remains within striking distance of Democratic Rep. Gary Peters but a race that was once considered a tossup by some prognosticators now shows Peters with a lead of about five to 10 points in most polls.
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The Democrats fell into this good fortune even as Schauer and Peters have run rather lackluster campaigns. Despite President Obama’s poor approval ratings, the voters, particularly the key independents in the middle of the spectrum, are not gravitating to the GOP as was expected.
As a result, Snyder could become the first Republican governor in Michigan since 1948 to lose re-election. And the Senate seat that Democrat Carl Levin held for decades could remain in Democratic hands for another six years and perhaps many more.
Yet, the most stunning development in the 2014 campaign is the narrow lead that the GOP’s other statewide officeholders – Attorney General Bill Schuette and Secretary of State Ruth Johnson – cling to in the latest polls.
Schuette and Johnson retain high profiles after easily winning election four years ago, but they both struggle at this late date to create distance between themselves and two thoroughly unknown Democrats.
Schuette, perhaps the most activist AG in many decades, playing a role in a host of state and national issues, somehow holds a lead of just eight points over Democratic darkhorse Mark Totten, 40.5 to 32.5 percent. That’s according to the newest poll by Vanguard Public Affairs and Denno research. The worst news for Schuette is this: After four years in office, 41 percent of independents are undecided on his re-election.
As for Johnson, she inexplicably charts just a 3.6-point lead over Godfrey Dillard, who was nominated at the state Democratic Convention last month and probably is a known entity to about 1 percent of the electorate. Worse yet, Johnson’s 36.3 to 32.7 edge in the Vanguard/Denno survey – a statistical tie – comes as 31 percent of voters, and half of the independents, are unsure if they will support her.
Clearly, (with apologies to Johnson) these two races are a case of: “I’ll take my chances on the other guy.”
A recent WDIV-TV/Detroit News poll produced similar findings. All the numbers show Snyder, Schuette and Johnson below 50 percent – a troubling sign.
Some Republican officials and commentators have come forward to denounce the One Tough Nerd’s rather sleepy gubernatorial campaign – featuring his new low-register voice in TV ads – and to express dismay at Land’s bunker mentality, avoiding the press and ducking debates.
(True to form, Land’s statewide bus tour stopped by the LaFata cabinet-making company in Shelby Township the other day and her team informed the press about the campaign visit after the fact.)
In the race for governor, dissension within the MIGOP ranks, ignited by the tea party’s disdain for the status quo, has emerged as an unmistakable factor. The Vanguard/Denno poll found that nearly 24 percent of Republicans said they have an unfavorable view of Snyder or that they are unsure about their opinion toward the incumbent. Those are the kinds of numbers that can send shock waves through a campaign.
In the Senate race, Land’s plan to hammer Peters endlessly on his support for Obamacare was quietly put aside months ago. As is the case with numerous Republican congressional campaigns across the nation, the Obamacare issue is fading fast as the healthcare program’s successes quietly pile up.
Meanwhile, the GOP at the national level recently plotted a new course by attempting to take advantage of the dominance of foreign affairs in the news cycle. After many months during which Republicans drifted toward Sen. Rand Paul’s brand of isolationism, the GOP campaign machines now seek to portray Obama and the Democrats as too soft on the ISIS terror group.
But the Republican approach so far has been an overreach – TV ads that attempt to link terrorism with immigration. After demonizing child-refugees at the Southern border and making a highly dubious claim that ISIS is amassing forces in Mexico, the Republicans risk alienating the female vote with this new tactic.
And women voters already represent a GOP weak spot, especially for Land and Snyder. Which makes Republican frustrations reach the point of high anxiety as they express consternation with their inability to dominate the Democratic ticket.
Peters, Schauer, Totten, Dillard – that’s hardly a hearty lineup that can stir the waters. But the GOP, rather than riding a wave of popularity, is struggling to keep its head above water.
Both Dillard and Totten are accomplished speakers and have outstanding credentials along with a wealth of experience and education. Dillard is no lightweight. Growing up in Detroit, he attended Visitation grade and high School and he was an outstanding athlete and was quite above average academically. Winning a scholarship to play Basketball at Vanderbilt (his high school team came very close to winning the State Class B Championship loosing to Flint Holy Redeemer in the quarter finals by 4 points) he was one of the first African Americans to play in the South East Conference. He has brilliantly and passionately won the support of Many Democrats inside Detroit and significantly outside of Detroit in Western Wayne County. He is the real deal.