The three states that would suffer the most economic damage from an extended war in Ukraine include Michigan, as a months-long barrage by Russian forces and even harsher sanctions could constrict supplies and drive up global prices for oil and other critical materials.
That’s the conclusion of a report by Moody’s Analytics that finds all 50 states would experience adverse effects from the military conflict in central Europe if it continues into 2023. Michigan, South Carolina and Washington would feel the most pain, with declines of nearly 3 percent in those states’ projected GDP growth.
Michigan automakers would be hit by continued shortages of computer chips, as semiconductor plants deal with cutbacks in Ukrainian supplies of the neon they need for lasers. According to Bloomberg News, the report says that higher prices for palladium, used in catalytic converters and a major Russian export, would also affect carmakers.
Washington and South Carolina would be hurt because they are the two states that export the most proportionally to Russia and Ukraine. Shipments affected likely would include transportation equipment from Washington and auto parts from South Carolina, the Moody’s analysis concludes.
The states least affected would be North Dakota, Alaska, West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Louisiana.
Among those states that would fare better than others, top energy producers such as North Dakota and Alaska would benefit if Russia constricts oil and gas supplies to Europe, which could boost global oil prices to $150 a barrel.
In contrast, Alabama and Mississippi — the two states most dependent on cars for transportation — would suffer disproportionately from an energy shock.
While the U.S. is not a significant trade partner with Russia, the widespread fallout here would be experienced in a variety of ways: higher barley prices that would impact beer producers; farmers dependent on fertilizers manufactured in Russia and livestock producers who would face price jumps for feed stock; and falling values for luxury condominiums in New York City and south Florida as Russian oligarchs are frozen out of those markets.
